Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?” a 95% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 95% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 6% |
| Volume | $7,297 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Sustained measles transmission in under-vaccinated U.S. communities continues to drive case counts higher.** As of June 25, 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,134 measles cases for the year across 38 jurisdictions and 30 outbreaks, with 93% of cases unvaccinated or of unknown status and most linked to ongoing chains from 2025. Recent weekly additions of 30–43 cases reflect persistent local spread, particularly in areas with MMR coverage below herd-immunity thresholds. CDC officials have highlighted elevated importation risk from international travel during summer months, which could accelerate incidence through July. Official surveillance updates, typically released mid-week, and any new state-reported clusters will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders assessing totals by July 31.