Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $5,283 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
As of mid-July 2026, CDC surveillance shows the typical seasonal rise in cyclosporiasis cases driven by foodborne transmission of Cyclospora cayetanensis oocysts in contaminated fresh produce such as berries and leafy greens. Confirmed case counts remain consistent with historical summer patterns rather than indicating a large multistate outbreak, supporting trader focus on whether totals will exceed baseline thresholds by July 31. Key variables include import volumes, produce sourcing changes, and any new clusters identified through notifiable disease reporting. CDC's ongoing weekly or monthly updates on laboratory-confirmed cases will provide the next authoritative data releases that could shift market-implied odds.