Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $65,006 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
With six magnitude 7.0–7.9 earthquakes recorded through mid-June 2026—including a recent 7.8 event offshore the Philippines—the annual pace remains below the USGS long-term average of roughly 15–16 such events. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin reflects expectations of typical second-half clustering along subduction zones, while the closely matched 11–13 outcome highlights uncertainty from irregular aftershock sequences and potential quiet periods on major plate boundaries. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and resolution hinges on whether seismic activity rebounds before year-end amid inherent year-to-year variability in global catalogs.