Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?” a 92% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 8% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 92% |
| Volume | $68,377 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Trader consensus on 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (47.5% implied probability) reflects a year-to-date count of 11–12 such events through early September, consistent with the long-term USGS baseline of roughly 15–16 major quakes annually worldwide.** Seismic catalogs show typical global variability driven by plate-boundary activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire and other subduction zones, with no sustained deviation from historical rates. The 17–19 range (31.0%) would require an above-average burst in the final months, while lower (11–13) or much higher (20+) outcomes remain less favored given current model consensus and the absence of unusual clustering signals. Upcoming USGS catalog updates and ongoing monitoring of aftershock sequences will provide the next resolution-relevant data points.