Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?” a 72% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 28% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 72% |
| Volume | $64,222 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
US military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained strikes against Iran through Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury, alongside the January capture operation and related actions targeting Venezuelan territory and associated vessels. Joint operations with Ecuadorian forces against cartel targets near the Colombia border, plus ongoing counterterrorism airstrikes in Somalia, Syria, and Iraq, have established a core set of countries. Trader consensus around eight or nine countries reflects these confirmed actions plus limited additional strikes in places such as Yemen or Nigeria, while uncertainty over further Latin American expansions or escalation in the Middle East keeps probabilities for nine elevated. Recent naval deployments and continued vessel interdictions in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific have reinforced but not substantially expanded the count beyond established theaters. Scheduled diplomatic or legislative reviews of these operations could influence whether additional countries enter the tally before year-end.