Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $651,732 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent diplomatic progress has sharply reduced trader expectations of a formal U.S. congressional declaration of war on Iran. On June 15, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear program, with formal signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This framework follows months of U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, and Iranian retaliatory actions, yet Congress has issued no authorization for use of military force or declaration. G7 support and asset/sanctions discussions further signal de-escalation momentum. Any breakdown in the upcoming talks or renewed major escalation could still alter probabilities before market resolution dates.