Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
As of October 20, 2026, the market gives “Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $3,635,637 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated October 20, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.