Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?” a 88% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 13% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 88% |
| Volume | $114,900 |
| Closes | August 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
US-Iran diplomacy centers on a draft memorandum of understanding addressing the Strait of Hormuz opening, sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and related security issues following earlier military exchanges. In late May 2026, negotiators reportedly reached a framework, prompting President Trump to seek edits on uranium handling and verification timelines; Iranian counterparts have resisted changes, producing reports of stalemate by mid-June. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing bilateral talks mediated in part by Oman, alongside parallel Israeli concerns and domestic US political pressures favoring de-escalation before midterm cycles. Resolution of the market hinges on any formal US statement ending participation, with timelines tied to the 60-day technical period referenced in recent announcements. Structural factors include executive authority over negotiations and the absence of congressional ratification requirements for an MOU.