Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?” a 85% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 15% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 85% |
| Volume | $140,961 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent US-Iran talks under the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum concluded their first round in Switzerland with mediators Qatar and Pakistan reporting encouraging progress on a 60-day roadmap, including technical sessions at Buergenstock and mechanisms for de-confliction in Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz communications. Prior rounds occurred in Oman, Geneva, Islamabad, and Rome, while sanctions relief and nuclear oversight issues remain central. The tight probabilities across Gulf states, Switzerland, Pakistan, and “no meeting by September 30” reflect ongoing volatility from regional tensions, mediator influence, and uncertainty over whether the next phase will stay in Switzerland, shift to a traditional neutral site, or stall amid implementation disputes. Any confirmed venue announcement or extension of the negotiating window could quickly realign trader consensus.