Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?” a 97% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 3% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 97% |
| Volume | $324,560 |
| Closes | October 1, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Traders assign overwhelming probability to no US-Iran meeting by September 30 because the 60-day negotiation window established under the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding expired without substantive progress on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, or Strait of Hormuz arrangements. Subsequent technical talks in Switzerland produced only preliminary roadmaps, followed by conflicting public statements, reported violations of interim commitments, and renewed threats that stalled further rounds. Primary mediators Qatar and Pakistan have not announced new sessions, and both capitals continue to emphasize unresolved disputes over Lebanon deconfliction and inspection mechanisms. A late diplomatic initiative or verified implementation of prior points could still shift timing, yet current impasse and lack of scheduled high-level engagement sustain the dominant market view.