Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?” a 61% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 40% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 61% |
| Volume | $844,029 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Anthropic leads the implied probabilities at 58.2% for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its June confidential S-1 filing and October listing window, backed by a $965 billion private valuation and annualized revenue run-rate exceeding $65 billion. SpaceX’s completed June IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation accounts for its 39.5% odds, while xAI’s 25.5% reflects its February merger into SpaceX. OpenAI trails at 1.6% amid reports of a potential 2027 delay despite its own filing. These probabilities embed trader consensus on execution timelines, revenue momentum in AI infrastructure, and post-IPO valuation benchmarks amid elevated Treasury yields and sector volatility. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected public S-1 release and any shifts in OpenAI’s filing status.