Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $61,070 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 cadence, enabled by high booster reuse rates exceeding 30 flights per vehicle and dual-coast operations at Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, positions the 140-159 launch range as the market leader at 85.6% implied probability. Through early September 2026, the company has completed over 100 Falcon missions, primarily Starlink deployments, alongside military and crewed flights, maintaining a pace consistent with 2025's record 165 launches. Starship Flight 14, scheduled for a September orbital attempt carrying early V3 satellites, adds incremental upside but remains limited by test objectives and regulatory windows. Upcoming milestones including Crew-13 and additional Starlink batches support trader consensus around this band, though FAA authorization caps and potential technical holds introduce modest uncertainty for higher totals.