Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?” a 91% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 9% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 91% |
| Volume | $100,014 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
SpaceX maintains a Falcon 9-dominated cadence on pace for roughly 140–155 total orbital launches in 2026, with over 100 Falcon missions completed by late August and company guidance from President Gwynne Shotwell centering on 140–145 Falcon flights. Reusability underpins this tempo, as proven boosters routinely exceed 30 flights with rapid turnarounds across Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral pads. Starship remains in the test phase, with Flight 14 slated as the first orbital attempt in mid-September carrying early V3 Starlink prototypes, though it has not yet scaled to operational rates that would materially shift the annual total. Regulatory limits, Florida pad reallocations for Starship, and the ongoing Falcon-to-Starship transition constrain upside beyond the 140–159 range favored by traders.