Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?” a 82% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 82% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 18% |
| Volume | $50,094 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, fueled by rapid booster reuse exceeding 30 flights per vehicle and frequent Starlink V2 Mini deployments from dual-coast pads, positions the 140-159 launch range as the dominant market outcome at 82% implied probability. Through early September 2026 the company has already surpassed 100 orbital missions, tracking toward roughly 150 total flights when historical monthly rates of 10-12 continue alongside limited Starship orbital attempts. Recent milestones, including record 37th flights and the approaching NET mid-September Starship Flight 14, reinforce trader consensus while underscoring regulatory and technical variables that could shift totals modestly higher or lower.