Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?” a 90% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 10% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 90% |
| Volume | $25,310 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Russia has not conducted a full-yield nuclear explosive test since 1990 and maintains its moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework, despite withdrawing ratification in 2023. Recent developments include May 2026 strategic nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and large-scale drills, plus a successful Sarmat ICBM flight test, which traders view as standard signaling rather than preparation for an explosive detonation. The expiration of New START in February 2026 and prior 2025 statements on reciprocal testing have kept the topic in focus, yet Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any test on U.S. action first. Key variables for the market include escalation in ongoing conflicts, arms-control breakdowns, or verifiable site activity at Novaya Zemlya that could shift implied probabilities.