Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $127,515 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast despite repeated Russian infiltration attempts and small-scale assaults aimed at securing positions on the Oskil River's left bank. Recent Ukrainian counterattacks, including the recapture of forested terrain southwest of Zakhidne in late August 2026, have disrupted Russian efforts to establish footholds or sever logistics routes. Russian glide bomb strikes continue to damage urban infrastructure, yet Ukrainian units have repelled breakthroughs near Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and prevented consolidation of gains. Putin’s June 2026 claims of proximity to the city’s outskirts contrasted with Ukrainian reports of no major escalation, reflecting a pattern of attritional fighting where local advances remain limited and contested. Upcoming developments hinge on sustained artillery, drone, and infantry operations in the sector.