Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?” a 87% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 14% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 87% |
| Volume | $27,157 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-unit advances around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast since late 2024, including pipeline incursions and probes into northern and western suburbs, but Ukrainian defenders have repeatedly cleared positions and restored control over key urban areas through counterattacks. Independent assessments through mid-2026 confirm Russian troops hold no consolidated ground inside the city proper, with activity limited to sporadic outskirts clashes and failed encirclement efforts near settlements such as Pishchane. Ukrainian forces reported net territorial gains across the front in 2026, including localized improvements east of Kupiansk, amid intensified drone and artillery interdiction. These battlefield realities underpin trader consensus that full capture remains improbable in the near term, with resolution hinging on verified consolidation of the entire city rather than partial claims.