Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?” a 51% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 50% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 51% |
| Volume | $450,221 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Russian forces have intensified offensive operations against Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast since early 2026, designating it the primary objective of their spring-summer campaign after prior seizures of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Recent reports detail coordinated infiltrations from eastern and southern axes, small-unit advances into northeastern and central districts, and urban fighting that began in June, with Russian elements operating near the railway station but unable to consolidate full control. Ukrainian forces have countered with strikes on infiltrators and logistics, reporting roughly 100-250 Russian troops inside the city amid ongoing Russian information efforts to portray rapid progress. Analysts assess these tactical gains as incremental and costly, consistent with Russia's broader priority to secure Donetsk Oblast but constrained by Ukrainian defensive positions in the Fortress Belt and limited maneuver capability.