Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?” a 64% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 64% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 37% |
| Volume | $12,160 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Russia captured most of Huliaipole by mid-January 2026 following a grinding offensive that began in September 2025, with Russian forces reporting full control by late December and independent mapping confirming advances into the western sections despite initial Ukrainian denials. Ukrainian counterattacks from late January through March 2026 liberated over 400 square kilometers in the surrounding Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole axes, stalling further Russian momentum and pushing lines back several kilometers in places. As of June 2026, intense daily clashes persist across the sector, with Russian assaults concentrated on villages near Huliaipole amid broader frontline pressure in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. These verified battlefield shifts and ongoing positional fighting shape trader assessments of capture timelines.