Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $2,227,510 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, has remained outside the country for nearly five decades while positioning himself as a potential transitional leader advocating secular democracy, territorial integrity, and separation of religion and state. Following the 2026 Iran conflict involving U.S. and Israeli strikes, he issued repeated public statements expressing readiness to return at the first opportunity to support a post-regime transition, including plans for a governance structure. However, as of early September 2026 he continues operating from Paris and the United States, with reporting highlighting challenges including limited domestic mobilization inside Iran, uneven international backing, and internal opposition divisions. Trader assessments of any near-term entry thus center on the timing of any regime transition, security conditions, and verifiable diplomatic or domestic shifts that could enable safe reentry.