Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?” a 84% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 84% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 16% |
| Volume | $2,815,136 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The US military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and his subsequent removal from office shifted immediate power to interim President Delcy Rodríguez and key PSUV figures such as Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello, yet trader consensus continues to price Maduro as the overwhelming favorite to hold the leadership role by year-end. This positioning reflects the regime’s institutional continuity, limited progress toward multi-party elections despite August talks on judicial reform and prisoner releases, and US-backed stabilization measures—including an oil production stake agreement—that have prioritized short-term cooperation over rapid political transition. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain largely sidelined in exile, with recent developments such as June earthquakes and ongoing US pressure failing to alter the balance of power before the December deadline. The market’s heavy weighting on Maduro aligns with the regime’s demonstrated ability to retain control of state institutions and security apparatus in the face of external demands for broader change.