Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?” a 77% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 77% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 23% |
| Volume | $2,087,664 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
US military forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and removed him from Venezuela to face charges, shifting formal power to acting president Delcy Rodríguez under the constitutional line of succession and Supreme Court rulings. Chavista-aligned institutions, including the National Assembly led by Jorge Rodríguez and loyal security forces, have maintained continuity, with Delcy consolidating authority through limited reforms, sanctions relief, and diplomatic engagement with the United States focused on stability and energy sector cooperation. No new presidential elections have been scheduled despite opposition calls from figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, who face ongoing restrictions on political activity. Traders assign Maduro the highest probability due to the regime's institutional resilience and potential for his eventual return or recognition, while pricing opposition outcomes low amid the absence of verified electoral processes or broader power shifts by late 2026.