Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?” a 83% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 83% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 17% |
| Volume | $6,395,859 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant position in the market reflects his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as supreme leader following his father’s assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes, a rapid transition driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ preference for continuity amid wartime leadership losses. The IRGC leveraged his family ties, administrative experience in the supreme leader’s office, and alignment with hardline security priorities to secure the vote despite constitutional concerns over hereditary succession and his initial clerical rank. Since taking office, Mojtaba has appointed veteran IRGC figures and hardliners to key military and security posts, signaling sustained confrontation with external adversaries and domestic control. With the year-end resolution window only months away and no verified challenges to his authority emerging in recent months, traders see limited scope for replacement before December.