Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?” a 64% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 64% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 36% |
| Volume | $65,888 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.