Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31” a 91% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 10% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 91% |
| Volume | $336,808 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Israeli leaders have framed any withdrawal of forces from positions north of the Litani River as strictly conditional on verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and dismantlement of its infrastructure across Lebanon, per the June 2026 US-brokered trilateral framework agreement. That accord established pilot zones—one north and one south of the river—for phased, conditions-based redeployment tied to Lebanese Armed Forces deployment rather than fixed timelines. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on September 4 that forces will remain in the security zone until Hezbollah is disarmed nationwide and threats to northern Israel are eliminated. Recent IDF operations, including clearing tunnels at the Ali al-Taher ridge, align with this approach, while Hezbollah has rejected the framework. Trader assessments reflect these policy positions and the absence of confirmed progress on disarmament verification.