Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31” a 65% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 36% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 65% |
| Volume | $209,676 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Israeli forces remain positioned north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon following ground advances confirmed by Prime Minister Netanyahu in late May 2026, expanding a buffer zone established earlier in the 2026 Lebanon war. Ceasefire extensions and U.S.-brokered talks in June produced agreements on “pilot zones” for Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah withdrawal north of the river, yet Israeli officials have stated troops will stay in security areas without a fixed timeline until threats are eliminated. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have linked any broader deal to Israeli withdrawal, a condition rejected by Israel, while sporadic strikes continue amid partial returns of displaced civilians. UNIFIL’s mandate ends in December 2026, adding pressure on implementation of Resolution 1701. These factors shape trader views on whether diplomatic or military timelines will produce a verified pullback by the market’s resolution date.