Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $371,617 |
| Closes | August 15, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.