Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?” a 84% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 17% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 84% |
| Volume | $306,649 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Tensions between India and Pakistan remain elevated one year after the May 2025 conflict, which began with India's Operation Sindoor missile strikes on sites in Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack and ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. India continues to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance over terrorism concerns, while Pakistan has extended airspace restrictions on Indian flights and demanded treaty restoration. Recent anniversary commemorations featured Indian vows to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and Pakistani warnings of strong responses to any new attacks. Limited backchannel contacts have surfaced amid these frictions, though no major military escalation has occurred in recent weeks. Trader consensus on a near-term Indian strike reflects the fragile deterrence dynamics and absence of fresh triggers within the resolution window.