Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?” a 78% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 78% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 23% |
| Volume | $12,413 |
| Closes | August 1, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.