Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $4,475,417 |
| Closes | October 10, 2026 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Yulia Navalnaya holds a slim lead in the fragmented 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market at roughly 8% implied probability, ahead of UNRWA, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and other longshots clustered below 5%.** With no dominant frontrunner and probabilities remaining low across the board, traders see a wide-open field typical of the prize’s history of surprising selections. Navalnaya’s edge stems from her continued profile as a Russian opposition figure and human rights advocate following her husband’s death, aligning with the committee’s recent tilt toward individual activists confronting authoritarian regimes. Humanitarian organizations like UNRWA benefit from institutional precedent and ongoing global relief work, while Zelenskyy’s positioning reflects Ukraine’s conflict visibility. The broad nomination pool of over 200 candidates and 79 organizations, combined with the October 9 announcement date, keeps momentum fluid and underscores the award’s inherent unpredictability.