Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?” a 91% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 10% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 91% |
| Volume | $993,540 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and Strait of Hormuz transit risks have lifted WTI crude futures near $91 per barrel and Brent toward $95 as of September 4, 2026, producing the strongest weekly gains in over a month amid supply disruption fears. Prices remain well below the $147.27 all-time high recorded in July 2008 and the roughly $120 peak reached earlier in 2026 during the prior conflict phase. Elevated OECD inventories, softer Asian demand, and partial supply recoveries continue to cap upside, while trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term odds of breaching the record. Key catalysts ahead include further geopolitical developments, upcoming EIA inventory data, and any shifts in OPEC+ output policy that could alter the balance between risk premia and fundamental oversupply pressures.