Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?” a 90% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 90% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 11% |
| Volume | $145,455 |
| Closes | January 10, 2027 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.