Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?” a 86% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 14% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 86% |
| Volume | $137,714 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes amid El Niño conditions, reinforces trader expectations that a Category 5 landfall remains unlikely before 2027. Only four such U.S. landfalls have occurred since records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms yet none reached the continental U.S., consistent with historical patterns where most Atlantic Category 5 systems weaken or recurve before landfall. Current model consensus and early-season observations show limited intensification potential through the peak months, though forecast uncertainty persists with possible La Niña development later in the year.