Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $141,411 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The market's 94% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 reflects the advanced stage of the 2026 Atlantic season, where official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no active systems with the sustained winds exceeding 157 mph needed for that Saffir-Simpson threshold. Historical patterns reinforce this outlook, as Category 5 landfalls remain rare events averaging less than one per decade, typically requiring specific atmospheric conditions like low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures that have not aligned for US strikes this year. Forecasters at NOAA continue issuing updates through the season's November close, but model consensus currently points to diminishing tropical activity. A late-season rapid intensification and precise steering toward the mainland could still alter outcomes, though such scenarios carry low probability given current observational data.