Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?” a 78% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 22% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 78% |
| Volume | $334,340 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season, which runs through November 30 and is the only period before 2027, project below-normal activity driven by emerging El Niño conditions that elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region. Official outlooks call for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), below 1991–2020 averages, with CSU’s June update lowering totals further to 11 storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors while explicitly assigning below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds. Early-season conditions align with historical analogs featuring suppressed intensification, and no observational data yet contradict the consensus that Category 4 systems capable of U.S. landfall remain unlikely.