Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?” a 84% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 16% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 84% |
| Volume | $341,072 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
El Niño conditions, now expected to strengthen through the peak August-October period, represent the primary driver behind the 84% market-implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 0-2 major hurricanes and 75% odds of overall suppression, consistent with Colorado State University and other outlooks that place U.S. major-hurricane landfall probability at roughly 19-24%. As of early September, the basin has produced only five named storms and zero hurricanes, yielding Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 4.4—about 10% of the long-term median. Unfavorable wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to the developing El Niño continue to limit intensification potential despite the climatological peak, leaving little time or favorable conditions for a Category 4 system to reach U.S. shores before the season ends.