Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?” a 87% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 13% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 87% |
| Volume | $635,482 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
SpaceX's June 2026 Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, priced at $135 per share to raise a record $75 billion at a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation, has anchored overwhelming trader consensus at 88% implied probability for the year's largest IPO by first-day market cap. The filing timeline—from confidential April submission to public S-1 in May—combined with Starlink revenue growth, Starship progress, and the February all-stock integration of xAI assets at a $250 billion standalone value, established unmatched scale that dwarfs later candidates. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its absorbed status rather than a separate listing, while Anthropic at 11% and OpenAI at 2.1% trail due to smaller anticipated valuations and unresolved timelines amid competitive AI model releases and regulatory scrutiny. Other names remain near-zero as execution risks and capital needs favor the Musk-linked aerospace and infrastructure platform.