Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?” a 99% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 1% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 99% |
| Volume | $220,656 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Recent US-Iran diplomatic agreements and partial ceasefire arrangements since mid-June 2026 have enabled a tentative rebound in Strait of Hormuz transits, though volumes remain well below pre-conflict norms of roughly 100–140 vessels daily.** Iranian authorities continue asserting control through route designations, warnings against unauthorized passages, and IRGC statements, while a June 25 vessel attack prompted the UN’s International Maritime Organization to pause evacuation initiatives. Persistent risks from mines, potential drone or missile incidents, and shipowner caution limit consistent daily flows. Ongoing US-led clearance operations and any further de-escalation steps before July 31 could support higher single-day volumes, but sustained Iranian territorial assertions and security incidents remain key constraints on rapid normalization of commercial traffic.