Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?” a 89% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 89% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 12% |
| Volume | $18,916 |
| Closes | January 10, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**High preliminary U.S. tornado reports through late August 2026, totaling 1,399 according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center data, strongly support the market's dominant 1250+ outcome at 88.5% implied probability.** This pace exceeds the long-term annual average near 1,200–1,300 and aligns with elevated activity in states like Illinois, which has set records with over 240 preliminary reports amid favorable moisture and instability patterns. Recent ENSO-neutral conditions after prior La Niña influences, combined with above-average spring and early summer severe weather, have driven the surge. Remaining months typically add fewer events, but the current trajectory makes totals well above 1,250 highly likely, with traders incorporating potential verification adjustments and typical seasonal decline into their assessments.