Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $15,630 |
| Closes | January 10, 2027 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Active early-season outbreaks and favorable atmospheric conditions have positioned 2026 on track for an above-average U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250.** Through mid-June, confirmed counts reached 723 amid repeated March and April events fueled by a persistent jet stream pattern that funneled warm, moist Gulf air into the Midwest and Plains, creating high instability and shear. Illinois alone recorded over 140 tornadoes, reflecting an eastward shift in activity. Long-range outlooks anticipated near- or slightly above-normal annual totals around 1,050–1,250, consistent with historical averages near 1,200 and the tendency for preliminary reports to be revised upward. Ongoing El Niño conditions and typical summer–fall contributions further support trader consensus for the highest bin.