Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $15,917 |
| Closes | January 10, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Elevated preliminary tornado reports, reaching 1,399 through August 31 per NOAA Storm Prediction Center data, have positioned the 1250+ outcome as the strong market favorite at 89% implied probability. Above-average activity through spring and early summer, including record counts in Illinois and a major June outbreak producing 99 tornadoes, reflects favorable atmospheric conditions such as enhanced low-level shear and moisture across the Midwest and Plains. With peak season largely concluded, climatological averages for September–December typically add only 100–200 additional reports, supporting consensus that the annual total will exceed 1250 despite ongoing survey revisions and model uncertainty in late-year patterns.