US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?” a 59% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 59% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 42% |
| Volume | $312,970 |
| Closes | August 14, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have strained the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire, with Iranian forces attacking commercial vessels in early July prompting US strikes on Iranian assets and renewed naval blockade measures. President Trump described the truce as over while signaling openness to continued talks, amid mutual threats of broader retaliation and Iranian efforts to assert control over shipping routes. Diplomatic channels involving mediators persist, focused on freedom of navigation, sanctions relief, and de-escalation timelines, though intermittent exchanges of fire continue. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether a verifiable two-week pause can stabilize amid these violations and competing interpretations of prior agreements.