US strike on Cuba by December 31?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “US strike on Cuba by December 31?” a 87% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 14% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 87% |
| Volume | $5,197,368 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The Trump administration has intensified economic and diplomatic pressure on Cuba through an effective oil blockade, targeted sanctions on regime-linked entities and officials including President Díaz-Canel, and federal charges against Raúl Castro. These measures coincide with Cuba’s deepening energy crisis, nationwide blackouts, and allegations of expanded ties to Russia, China, and Iran, including reported drone acquisitions. U.S. military signaling has included deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine units to the Caribbean, increased intelligence operations and overflights, and public statements from officials such as Secretary Rubio and Defense Secretary Hegseth that all options, including force, remain available. Bilateral military contacts at the Guantánamo perimeter have occurred alongside contingency planning at the Pentagon, though no imminent operation has been confirmed. Trader assessments reflect the balance between sustained coercive leverage and the absence of direct kinetic action to date.