US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?” a 89% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 12% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 89% |
| Volume | $1,875,920 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Recent US-Iran framework agreement centers nuclear talks on Iran's ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium.** In mid-June 2026, Washington and Tehran signed (or prepared to sign) a memorandum extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program, including enrichment limits, inspections, and stockpile disposition. US officials have described commitments for IAEA-supervised down-blending or disposal on-site, with some reports referencing potential delivery or removal of material to the United States. Iran has signaled willingness to forgo nuclear weapons development while retaining limited civilian activities. The timeline, verification mechanics, and final terms remain unresolved pending further diplomacy, directly shaping trader assessments of any near-term US acquisition of the material.