US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?” a 99% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 1% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 99% |
| Volume | $1,478,516 |
| Closes | October 1, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding continue to shape prospects for a final US-Iran nuclear agreement. The MOU established a 60-day framework, extendable by consent, for addressing Iran’s nuclear program alongside sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, reconstruction financing, and related issues following earlier hostilities. Iran has reaffirmed it will not develop nuclear weapons and agreed in principle to downblend its enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision, while details on enrichment limits, verification, and inspections remain under discussion in technical talks. US statements have highlighted commitments to robust monitoring, though Iranian officials have described nuclear matters as not yet fully addressed pending other implementation steps. European partners have signaled willingness to support sanctions adjustments in a new accord. Trader assessments reflect uncertainty over timelines, verification mechanisms, and linkage between economic measures and nuclear commitments.