US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?” a 86% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 14% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 86% |
| Volume | $523,716 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
US and Iranian officials signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that extended a ceasefire, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and outlined limited sanctions relief while deferring core nuclear issues. The framework sets a 60-day window ending around mid-August for technical negotiations on uranium enrichment limits, down-blending of existing highly enriched stockpiles under IAEA supervision, verification measures, and related sanctions. Planned follow-on talks in Switzerland were postponed amid regional tensions. These developments, following earlier rounds of diplomacy and a period of direct conflict, have shaped trader assessments of whether a comprehensive final agreement on Iran's nuclear program can be finalized before the interim deadline or any specified market resolution date. Key variables include compliance steps, IAEA access, and any external pressures from other regional actors.