US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?” a 60% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 60% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 41% |
| Volume | $146,567 |
| Closes | August 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, imposed in April 2026 amid the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis, was lifted on June 18 following the Islamabad Memorandum agreement that reopened the waterway to commercial traffic. Renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and US strikes have since fractured the ceasefire, prompting President Trump on July 13 to announce immediate reinstatement of the blockade targeting Iranian-flagged and customer ships while positioning the US as “guardian” of the strait and imposing passage fees on others. Key drivers of trader sentiment include the pace of any renewed diplomatic talks, enforcement actions by CENTCOM or IRGC forces, oil export volumes through the chokepoint, and scheduled regional summits or bilateral meetings that could produce a new de-escalation accord. Resolution hinges on verifiable US statements confirming the blockade’s end rather than partial pauses or escort operations.