Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?” a 82% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 19% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 82% |
| Volume | $2,441,375 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Traders assign a 71.5% probability to “No” on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because core obstacles remain unresolved amid stalled diplomacy.** US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges and brief holiday ceasefires, with formal negotiations pausing after US priorities shifted to the Iran conflict. Ukraine has offered an unlimited ceasefire along current lines plus security guarantees involving European forces, while Russia continues demanding territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian defense capabilities that Kyiv rejects. Recent June 2026 proposals from President Zelenskyy for direct leader-level talks were dismissed by Moscow, and European-backed frameworks have similarly failed to bridge gaps. With fighting ongoing and no scheduled breakthrough events in the resolution window, the market consensus reflects the entrenched positions and lack of verifiable momentum toward a comprehensive signed agreement.