Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?” a 86% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 14% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 86% |
| Volume | $2,678,561 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in early 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk territory or binding postwar security guarantees excluding NATO membership. Russia has maintained its demands for recognition of annexed regions and limits on Ukrainian forces, while Ukraine has rejected unilateral territorial concessions. Negotiations effectively stalled by February amid external distractions and divergent positions, with the Kremlin later stating no immediate prospects for resumption. Recent comments from Putin acknowledging a possible settlement and Zelensky noting upcoming U.S. envoy visits signal continued diplomatic engagement but no breakthrough on disputed issues. With the front lines largely static and fewer than four months remaining before 2027, these entrenched barriers sustain trader expectations against a signed agreement in the resolution window.