Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?” a 92% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 9% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 92% |
| Volume | $220,815 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ukraine’s next national elections remain blocked by repeated extensions of martial law, most recently renewed through August 2, 2026, under constitutional rules and the martial law statute that prohibit presidential, parliamentary, or local votes while the measure is active. Parliament has extended the regime in 90-day increments 19 times since 2022, with the latest votes reflecting continued Russian strikes and frontline conditions. Officials have ruled out any ballot in 2026, citing security risks, the need for legislative changes to enable voting by displaced citizens and troops, and broad consensus that elections require at least six months after martial law ends. A parliamentary working group continues drafting post-war election procedures as of early 2026, while statements from the presidency tie any vote to a durable ceasefire and external security guarantees rather than a temporary truce. These legal, logistical, and wartime constraints shape trader assessments of timing.