Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $233,390 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ukraine’s next presidential election remains blocked by martial law, extended through 31 October 2026, which Ukrainian law explicitly prohibits during wartime. President Zelenskyy’s five-year term ended in May 2024, but the constitution extends his powers until a successor is sworn in. The dominant recent development occurred in mid-to-late August 2026 when former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov publicly called for wartime voting, prompting Zelenskyy to reject the idea as a “huge risk” and “tsunami” that would split the country amid ongoing Russian attacks. Polls show 57–59% of Ukrainians favor elections only after a final peace deal, with just 10–15% supporting a wartime vote. Legal changes, security guarantees for soldiers and the diaspora, updated voter rolls, and months of preparation would be required, making any ballot before late 2026 or 2027 highly improbable without a ceasefire or martial-law lift.