Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?” a 83% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 18% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 83% |
| Volume | $61,478 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Martial law, extended through August 2026, continues to block national elections under Ukraine’s constitution, which prohibits voting during active conflict and requires a stable security environment beforehand. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly conditioned any ballot on a prior ceasefire plus international guarantees, while parliamentary groups advance draft rules that could compress timelines or allow wartime voting if hostilities subside. Recent extensions of martial law and the absence of major diplomatic breakthroughs have kept near-term resolution probabilities low in trader assessments, with any shift dependent on verifiable de-escalation steps or formal legislative changes before the next renewal deadline.