Trump out as President before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Trump out as President before 2027?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 8% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $9,946,409 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Republican majorities in Congress have repeatedly tabled or defeated Democratic impeachment resolutions, including multiple measures tied to executive actions on Iran in 2025-2026, preventing any path to Senate conviction. No credible developments point to resignation, successful invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other removal mechanisms before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 89.5% on "No" reflects this institutional barrier, combined with the absence of acute health or political crises that would alter the timeline. Midterm outcomes later in 2026 remain a potential variable but have not shifted probabilities meaningfully yet.