Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” a 74% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 27% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 74% |
| Volume | $10,425,357 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Ongoing military tensions and persistent maritime hazards in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial traffic well below pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that normal volumes will not resume by December 31, 2026.** Since the conflict escalation beginning in late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed selective controls, issued route warnings, and conducted strikes on vessels, while mines and navigation risks have forced rerouting or avoidance of standard lanes. As of early September 2026, daily transits remain at roughly 3–6 vessels—around 6% of the typical pre-war average of 70–130—according to maritime intelligence from Windward, IMF PortWatch, and others. Recent US strikes on Iranian tankers in retaliation for attacks on commercial shipping, combined with Iranian responses and elevated war-risk insurance premiums (often 40x normal), have further deterred operators. Industry bodies such as BIMCO and INTERTANKO continue to highlight clearance needs and safety uncertainties, with hundreds of vessels still affected or avoiding the chokepoint. These factors reflect entrenched diplomatic and security frictions that traders view as unlikely to fully resolve in the remaining months of the year.