Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” a 56% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 56% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 45% |
| Volume | $5,102,980 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement has enabled initial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with vessel transits resuming at a trickle after months of near-zero throughput amid conflict-related closures and attacks. Market-implied odds of 90.5% for normalized traffic by year-end reflect trader consensus that logistical hurdles—such as clearing a backlog exceeding 500 vessels, mine risks, and elevated insurance premiums—will be resolved well before December 31, consistent with precedents for rapid recovery once security assurances stabilize. Key upcoming catalysts include sustained maritime patrols and insurance rate normalization. Residual uncertainty stems from potential geopolitical flare-ups or slower-than-expected de-risking that could extend elevated war-risk premiums into late 2026.