Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?” a 87% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 14% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 87% |
| Volume | $3,493,561 |
| Closes | August 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations in Doha, following a June interim deal and late-June ship attacks that cut Hormuz transits sharply, underpin the 50% market-implied odds for normal traffic by August 31. Recent volatility in daily crossings—rebounding toward prewar levels before dropping to 22 vessels on one day—reflects shipowner caution amid disputes over Iranian transit fees and route control, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and sustaining elevated oil-price volatility. Progress on unfreezing assets or clarifying navigation rules could accelerate resumption and lift the “yes” side, while any escalation or stalled talks would reinforce downside risks for energy markets.