Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 8% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $1,005,218 |
| Closes | November 1, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Trilateral U.S.-mediated talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced prisoner exchanges but stalled over territorial demands, with Russia insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas it does not fully control while Kyiv favors a frontline freeze. Short-lived holiday ceasefires in April and May collapsed amid mutual violations, and broader diplomacy paused after U.S. focus shifted to operations against Iran. As of late August 2026, Ukrainian officials noted preparations for additional POW swaps and signaled possible resumption of negotiations in September, though Russian statements continue to reject a simple freeze and emphasize comprehensive settlement terms including security constraints. These dynamics keep prospects for a sustained ceasefire agreement dependent on movement on core disputes.