Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?” a 83% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 18% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 83% |
| Volume | $2,228,578 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions in Donbas and security guarantees continue to block progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. In July 2026, President Putin rejected Kyiv’s truce proposals and reiterated demands for full control of annexed regions, while the Kremlin stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks despite openness to future diplomacy. Kazakhstan’s July proposal to “freeze” the conflict along current lines received limited traction. Prisoner exchanges advanced in August, and Ukrainian officials indicated possible resumption of negotiations in September, though core issues including neutrality commitments and monitoring mechanisms remain unresolved amid ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure.