Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?” a 59% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 41% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 59% |
| Volume | $2,011,060 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent US-brokered diplomacy, including February Geneva trilateral meetings and a June deadline for progress, has produced limited results such as multiple prisoner-of-war exchanges in April through early June and brief pauses around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 open letter to Russian President Putin proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire, bilateral talks, and an “all-for-all” exchange, yet formal negotiations remain stalled over territorial demands and monitoring terms. Intensified Russian strikes and Ukrainian rejections of partial offers continue amid US attention on other regions, leaving traders focused on whether these incremental steps can yield a publicly announced mutual halt before the June 30 window closes.