New pandemic in 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “New pandemic in 2026?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $892,304 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Enhanced global surveillance and the absence of any pathogen exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission or exponential growth justify the 89.5% market-implied odds against a new pandemic in 2026. As of mid-June, CDC data show COVID-19 emergency visits below 0.1% and declining in most states, while influenza and RSV seasons have concluded without unusual activity. Localized outbreaks, including Bundibugyo virus Ebola in the DRC and a contained Andes hantavirus cluster on a cruise ship, lack the respiratory efficiency or geographic scale to meet WHO pandemic thresholds. Post-COVID preparedness improvements, including rapid response modeling, have contained zoonotic spillovers, though traders note residual climate-related risks for future emergence.