Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Netanyahu out by end of 2026?” a 52% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 49% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 52% |
| Volume | $2,284,763 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election represents the central near-term driver for Netanyahu’s tenure, with polls showing his Likud-led bloc trailing or tied with opposition parties and struggling to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. Recent surveys indicate Yashar, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, running neck-and-neck with Likud, while Netanyahu’s far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies face threshold risks and internal vote-splitting that could further weaken the coalition. Ongoing military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, combined with public fatigue from nearly three years of conflict and criticism over security lapses, have eroded support. Post-election coalition talks, which can extend weeks or months, will determine whether an opposition government forms and replaces Netanyahu, whose corruption trial and legislative agenda remain additional points of contention.