Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Netanyahu out by end of 2026?” a 65% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 36% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 65% |
| Volume | $1,876,002 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Netanyahu remains Israel's prime minister ahead of legislative elections scheduled by late October 2026, with the Knesset advancing dissolution proceedings amid coalition strains over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and budget issues. Recent polls show Likud as the largest single party, though opposition blocs led by figures such as Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot have narrowed or overtaken his coalition in some surveys, reflecting voter fatigue from prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu has signaled intent to seek another term and influence the election timeline, while public statements emphasize security achievements against Iran and Hezbollah. Traders weigh risks of post-election losses or coalition realignments against his history of navigating fragmented Knesset arithmetic; key near-term catalysts include final election date confirmation and any late shifts in northern voter sentiment or U.S.-Iran diplomacy.