Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?” a 97% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 3% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 97% |
| Volume | $371,404 |
| Closes | October 1, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father’s death in a February US-Israeli strike, has issued only written statements and undated video clips since then while remaining out of verifiable public view.** Severe injuries reportedly sustained in the attack, combined with security concerns amid ongoing regional conflict, have kept him from live appearances, including his father’s July funeral ceremonies. State media released short, undated footage in August showing him in private settings, alongside reports of closed-door meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian and military appointments. Persistent rumors of his condition or possible death have circulated among officials and media, though Iranian sources and some foreign assessments maintain he is alive and directing affairs through proxies. Trader focus centers on the timing of any confirmed, date-stamped public event that would resolve uncertainty around his health, authority, and the regime’s stability.