Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?” a 82% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 19% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 82% |
| Volume | $629,001 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Miguel Díaz-Canel continues to hold formal power as President of Cuba and First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, with his presidential term scheduled to conclude in 2028 and potential party leadership extending to 2031. Cuba faces acute economic strain from chronic fuel shortages, nationwide blackouts, and an intensified U.S. sanctions regime under the Trump administration, including secondary measures targeting energy suppliers and regime-linked entities. In response, Díaz-Canel has overseen approval of more than 20 economic reforms since mid-2026 that expand private-sector roles, grant greater autonomy to state enterprises, and ease foreign investment rules, while maintaining the socialist framework. Diplomatic talks with U.S. officials have focused on easing the energy blockade, accompanied by limited prisoner releases. Raúl Castro retains informal influence despite his advanced age. These institutional and policy dynamics shape trader assessments of leadership continuity amid external pressure.