Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?” a 71% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 30% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 71% |
| Volume | $521,935 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Díaz-Canel continues to hold both the Cuban presidency and Communist Party first secretary role amid sustained external pressure from the U.S. administration for leadership change, including reported preconditions in bilateral talks earlier this year and recent sanctions targeting him personally. Cuban officials have repeatedly rejected any removal of the president as a negotiation condition, with Díaz-Canel publicly stating that stepping down is not under consideration. No internal party signals, constitutional triggers, or mass domestic unrest have emerged to force a transition before late June. Recent moves include June economic reforms aimed at attracting investment and decentralizing administration, alongside ongoing influence from Raúl Castro in party and military circles. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring continuity through the near-term resolution window.